Follow the leader! Just as Xi Jinping insists on “the good stories of China,” Chief Executive John Lee now appears to be following suit in Hong Kong. What’s good for the goose must be good for the gander! scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

An expanded version of Shan’s letter to the FT. If only Hongkongers could actually vote with their feet! He is correct on the (dead cat) bounce in the stock market but wrong in dismissing Chinese growth linkages. Let the debate continue. scmp.com/opinion/hong-k…

“The Excess Capacity Debate” —Washington’s latest effort to pick a fight with China. Laced with hypocrisy (on subsidies), the US is running uphill in its futile efforts to regain comparative advantage in advanced manufacturing. See my latest blog dispatch stephenroachauthor.com/the-excess-cap…

Painfully reminiscent of the peak excesses of the Japanese property bubble. Takes me back to 1989 when the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo were worth more than all the property in California! Is China the next Japan? wsj.com/real-estate/ch…

Don’t mistake the recent dead-cat bounce in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) as the end of a major bear market in Hong Kong. The HSI is still down 44% from its Feb 2021 peak. Long tunnel, dim light — at best! wsj.com/finance/stocks…

“The Voodoo of China Hawks” — my critique of the Pottinger-Gallagher article in Foreign Affairs: all bluster, no analytics, and the wrong lessons from the Cold War. stephenroachauthor.com/the-voodoo-of-…

Banned in China, published by Project Syndicate— my paper on Chinese rebalancing, written by invitation for the China Development Forum. Makes the analytical/ empirical case for structural change aimed at boosting TFP and consumer-led growth. Why ban it? project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-…

I consider Mike Gallagher and Matt Pottinger to be good friends. Each has a distinguished record of service to the country, above all on China. I agree with them about a great deal.

But I fundamentally disagree with their core argument here.

Why? 1/

foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

If the IMF is correct and China’s GDP growth slows to a 3.8% pace over the next five years, that would be a 6.2 pctg point slowing from earlier hyper growth of 10%. That’s nearly the same as Japan’s lost decades slowing from 7.25% to 0.8%. See my blog. stephenroachauthor.com/chinas-growth-…

This year’s China Development Forum eschewed open and honest dialogue, leading Stephen Roach to bemoan the loss of a platform for vigorous debate. bit.ly/4aSOka4

Requiem for the China Development Forum, once China’s most important platform for open and honest engagement with the world. As the longest attending foreign delegate, I ask and attempt to answer the tough question, “What’s the Point?” project-syndicate.org/commentary/chi…