…. One more thing — to all those who blame #migrants for the high numbers. Are they all hired now? And as for the household survey, it was up after being down. Put your politics driving your view aside. The economy is normalizing not contracting. Is #inflation next?

. . . What does it mean for the #Fed ? They were right in loping off hikes as a probability for the moment. 170 is still an expanding #economy and upside cyclical pressures are still in place. Let’s call this reversion to the norm rather than pre-recession …..

The #recession crowd is about to have their moment after the April #employment number. Fact is the numbers of the past few months were over the top. 170,000 is what the economy normally produces at this point in the cycle. . . .

Thanks Carl for reposting. As time goes on we will look back at this press conference as another pivot to ease.

FED: RECESSION IS NOT AN OPTION & INFLATION'S UPSIDE IS NOT A RISK. Bias to ease than hike cause that's how they see the balance of risks. If inflations jumps towards 5% they obviously hike – but they don't see that happening because they believe the funds rate is right-priced.

Muck the stables.

For equity markets, not a bad thing for the Fed not to cut because of strong growth and inflation stubbornly in the 3% to 4% range. It is a bad thing for the FOMC to ignore whether the real funds rate is high enough to generate the slow walk to 2% inflation. steven blitz

'Either productivity begins to accelerate (inclined to think it will) or the Fed will need to continue propping up the market.'

steven blitz

Marriage between the FOMC and disinflation is heading for a divorce “Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably. steven blitz

“.. Largely because of the rise in equities .. and the deleveraging of household balance sheets in the past decade, asset/liability ratios have not been this high since the late 1990s.' 🇺🇸

- GlobalData.TSLombard steven blitz Daily Chartbook

Some photos of mine from yesterday partial #Eclipse in #NYC using the #leicasls2

EA productivity rebound but will policymakers spoil it? Very important thread by Davide Oneglia

GlobalData.TSLombard P.S. all is not lost. At least someone at the ECB is paying attention:

”If we hold them [high interest rates] for too long, we might put the recovery at risk and delay the associated cyclical rebound in productivity growth” (Piero Cipollone, 27 March)

ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…

“.. IS THE EXPANSION JUST GETTING STARTED? .. Equity market reflects earnings, earnings lead to hiring .. Nothing unusual here, typical start-of-cycle dynamics.” 🇺🇸

- GlobalData.TSLombard

The Fed created this great bull market in equities through QE, a market too rich by most measures, but the Fed is unlikely to reverse course, hoping instead that the economy grows into these broad high valuations.

No US recession, but buyout equity market key to continued expansion; something the Fed appears keen on doing. Jobs and income are always key drivers of consumer spending, but equities have become increasingly important across all wealth cohorts

'The most important history lesson of the 20th century is the following: Hitler was elected. He was chosen, and that choice was a final one. After it, there was no more need for Germans to choose. Everything was decided for them.'

We must learn from our history or we'll be…

“.. Consumers remain liquid, and underleveraged, and this will keep real discretionary spending running high.” 🇺🇸

steven blitz GlobalData.TSLombard Daily Chartbook

You know that thing Trump did to the RNC? Yeah. He plans to do that to every agency and organization: Everyone gets booted out….and replaced by Trump loyalists.

We are in the “Turn the heat up slowly on the Frog in a pan of water” phase….as we speak.

It’s all about…

'Plugging the Laubach-Williams r* into the Taylor Rule, using the CBO’s historic estimates for NAIRU and a 2% inflation target, the funds rate is where it should be.'

steven blitz GlobalData.TSLombard