I've learned a ton & meet many great people through Twitter. But it's now painfully clear that those days are over. Twitter is now worse than useless; it's dangerous, making people less informed, and more angry, than ever before. Come meet me where the sky is blue.

Here's my new working paper w/Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) and Elsa Voytas

We use a large Facebook experiment (39 million impressions) & a survey experiment (7k+ respondents) to test how 3 different video messages affect support for violent extremism in Bangladesh #cve

osf.io/w8fe2/

New w/Jason Lyall & Elsa Voytas: Online Communitarian Appeals Increase Opposition to Violent Extremism osf.io/w8fe2/

-Paired FB ad & survey exps testing 3 CVE msgs in Bangladesh
-Message of communal harmony most effective in both, only one robust to counter-messages

Interested in causal inference using spatial & temporal data (e.g., attacks or aid data)? We've released a new R package, geocausal, that allows you to estimate causal effects for various spatial & temporal windows for user-specified counterfactuals

cran.r-project.org/web/packages/g…

Fascinating article. Turns out tons of highly cited econ articles all rely on the same deeply problematic source of population data. All kinds of implications for studies of long-term development, military outcomes, etc. The perils of data monocultures...
bit.ly/3P6xPOF

Latest post on the 'Realist' case for reduced support to Ukraine, discussing (respectfully) Elbridge Colby's comparison with the US intervention in Vietnam.
American Grand Strategy, Realism, and the Russo-Ukraine War open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/ame…

Everyone is now an expert on how we should fight. A gentle reminder that no one understands this war better than we do.

Come work with us at the MIT SSP Wargaming Lab! We're hiring a wargame analyst/modeler to help us design and field new games!

careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/clie…

Looking forward to reading the Afghan War Commission’s report. In the meantime, working hard to write my own book on the lessons of the Afghan War with Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.s (I’m a one man red team)

thehill.com/opinion/nation…

Just got my royalty statement from Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.s & thrilled to see how many copies of Divided Armies I've actually sold. Really amazing. (And it's on sale!).

Surreal, though, to see a single copy sold in my home & native land 🇨🇦 (hi, mom!)

press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/97…

Just got my royalty statement from Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.s & thrilled to see how many copies of Divided Armies I've actually sold. Really amazing. (And it's on sale!).

Surreal, though, to see a single copy sold in my home & native land 🇨🇦 (hi, mom!)

press.princeton.edu/books/ebook/97…

If you liked @monkeycageblog, you're gonna love Good Authority. We launch in late September. Sign up to be notified: goodauthority.org

America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There’s No Tomorrow nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Come join us! New job in Quantitative Social Science Dartmouth 🌲 for a TT assistant professor conducting research using either machine learning techniques or advanced statistical methods with a focus on social science applications. Review begins on Oct. 14
apply.interfolio.com/130125

Your (airborne) moment of Vermont zen

I'm on the committee --- happy to answer any questions!

Job Alert 🚨: Dartmouth seeks applications for a tenure-track Assistant Prof of Comparative Politics, with particular focus on politics of China or South Asian countries. Deadline: 16 Sept. Details ⬇️

apply.interfolio.com/129899

I think greater attention to how the Taliban adapted to, and ultimately outlasted, an incredibly lethal US recon-strike complex would’ve given us clues about the effects and limits of “revolutionary” tech like drones, sensors, etc. in Ukraine (and elsewhere)